Exploring Fertility Dynamics and Factors Shaping Russia’s Demographic Prospects

  • Vladimir N. Arkhangelskiy Institute for Demographic Research—Branch of the Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia; Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7091-9632
  • Svetlana Yu. Sivoplyasova Institute for Demographic Research—Branch of the Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia; Moscow Aviation Institute (National Research University), Moscow, Russia http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3239-4230
  • Evgeniya M. Moiseeva Institute for Demographic Research—Branch of the Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7571-2369
DOI: https://doi.org/10.15826/csp.2024.8.2.275

Abstract

The research examines fertility patterns in Russia by using current calendar birth rates and their implications for actual generations. Birth rates for these generations are derived from the 2020 Census data and are further refined through calculations employing one-year age-specific rates. This methodology allows us to estimate parameters for age-specific fertility models in real generations, offering a different approach compared to traditional population census methods. Given the variance in fertility rates by birth order, the analysis favors a segmented approach, separately considering trends for first, second, third, and subsequent births. Factors influencing fertility are examined both statistically, with a focus on the impact of population age–sex structure transformations on overall fertility rates, and through insights from Vyborochnoe nabliudenie reproduktivnykh planov naseleniia [Sample Observation of Population Reproductive Plans] performed by Rosstat [Federal State Statistics Service] in 2022. Value orientations are the primary determinant in reproductive behavior, which means that a key goal of demographic policy is to influence these orientations. However, it is also possible to influence fertility rates through social and demographic policies creating favorable conditions for families to fulfill their desire for children.

Author Biographies

Vladimir N. Arkhangelskiy, Institute for Demographic Research—Branch of the Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia; Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia

Vladimir N. Arkhangelskiy, Cand. Sci. (Economics), Leading Researcher, Institute for Demographic Research—Branch of the Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences; Head of the Sector for Theoretical Problems of Population Reproduction and Policy, Laboratory of Population Economics and Demography, Faculty of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia.

Svetlana Yu. Sivoplyasova, Institute for Demographic Research—Branch of the Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia; Moscow Aviation Institute (National Research University), Moscow, Russia

Svetlana Yu. Sivoplyasova, Cand. Sci. (Economics), Leading Researcher, Institute for Demographic Research—Branch of the Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences; Associate Professor, Department of Theoretical and Practical Economics, Moscow Aviation Institute (National Research University), Moscow, Russia.

Evgeniya M. Moiseeva, Institute for Demographic Research—Branch of the Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

Evgeniya M. Moiseeva, Cand. Sci. (Economics), Senior Researcher, Institute for Demographic Research—Branch of the Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia.

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Published
2024-07-19
How to Cite
Arkhangelskiy, V., Sivoplyasova, S., & Moiseeva, E. (2024). Exploring Fertility Dynamics and Factors Shaping Russia’s Demographic Prospects. Changing Societies & Personalities, 8(2), 291–312. doi:10.15826/csp.2024.8.2.275
Citation Formats
Issue
Vol. 8, No. 2 (2024): Special Issue “Demographic Well-Being as a Factor of Social Development”
Section
Articles in the Special Section