Employment Inequalities Between Central Asian Migrants and Local Residents Across the Regions of Russia: Evidence From Binary Logistic Regression

Sergey V. Ryazantsev; Abubakr Kh. Rakhmonov

doi:10.15826/csp.2026.10.3.397

Sergey V. Ryazantsev Heilongjiang University, Harbin, China PR; Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia (RUDN University), Moscow; Institute of Social Demography of the Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences (ISD FCTAS RAS), Moscow, Russia http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5306-8875
Abubakr Kh. Rakhmonov Institute of Social Demography of the Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences (ISD FCTAS RAS), Moscow, Russia http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9924-5857

DOI: https://doi.org/10.15826/csp.2026.10.3.397

Abstract

This article examines the differences in employment probability between international migrants and native residents in Russia, with a focus on labor migrants from Central Asia. Using nationally representative microdata on working-age individuals (15–64) in Russia and applying binary logistic regression, the analysis compares the odds of being employed for Central Asian migrant workers versus native Russians. The model controls for key demographic and human capital factors (age, sex, marital status, and education). Contrary to some expectations, the results show that migrants from Central Asia exhibit equal or slightly higher odds of employment compared to natives, after accounting for other factors. The model also identifies a statistically significant gender gap in employment, with women having lower odds of employment than men after controlling for other factors. This finding suggests that migrant–native comparisons should be interpreted with caution, since aggregate results may mask important heterogeneity within the migrant population itself. Age effects follow a curvilinear pattern, with employment odds rising through middle working ages and declining at older ages. Education and marital status also show strong influences: higher educational attainment and being married are associated with significantly higher employment odds. These findings are situated within the broader literature on migrant labor market integration. While Central Asian migrants in Russia achieve high rates of employment, they are often concentrated in lower-paying and informal jobs, and gender disparities persist.

Author Biographies

Sergey V. Ryazantsev, Heilongjiang University, Harbin, China PR; Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia (RUDN University), Moscow; Institute of Social Demography of the Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences (ISD FCTAS RAS), Moscow, Russia

Sergey V. Ryazantsev, Dr. Sci. (Economics), Professor, and Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences. He is a Professor at Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia (RUDN University), Visiting Professor at the Heilongjiang University, Harbin, China PR, and Head of Center for Comparative (International) Demographic Research, Institute of Social Demography of the Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences (ISD FCTAS RAS), Moscow, Russia. He has extensive academic and research experience in international migration, demography, and population studies. His research covers migration processes in Europe, Asia, and Latin America, as well as demographic and migration policies. He has published extensively on labor migration, remittances, population development, and the socioeconomic consequences of international migration. He is actively involved in international research collaborations and comparative studies of contemporary migration processes. Other research interests include migrant integration and migration processes in Russia and Central Asia.

Abubakr Kh. Rakhmonov, Institute of Social Demography of the Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences (ISD FCTAS RAS), Moscow, Russia

Abubakr Kh. Rakhmonov, Cand. Sci. (Economics), Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Social Demography of the Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences. His research focuses primarily on international and labor migration, demographic processes, and migration from Central Asian countries. He has conducted research on the Central Asia–Russia migration corridor, the reorientation of Central Asian migration flows toward OECD countries, and the socioeconomic adaptation of migrants. His studies also examine migrant employment, labor market integration, migration policy, and the socioeconomic consequences of international migration for countries of origin and destination. He has published research on migration processes involving Central Asia, Russia, Europe, and the Asia-Pacific region. His current research interests include comparative migration systems and the changing geography of international labor migration.

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